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Today, the online children’s gaming platform Roblox is dumping 199 million shares of mammon onto the market through its direct listing, which likely means a Black Friday-level mob and hours of free content for CNBC’s Squawk Box on a yet-unprofitable company. Nothing new there, but it’s also an almost psychedelic amalgam of 2021 intergenerational imaginations: adults who would like to make magic money can soon place their chips on the perceived value of an economy of millions of mostly child consumers buying and trading virtual helmets. This is either nothing short of amazing or a completely foreseeable outcome of monetizing everything. In any case, it’s a good excuse to think about the long-term stability of the Roblox economy.

Roblox is sort of like a virtual Dave & Busters, with 50 million multiplayer games to choose from and avatar adornments kids can buy with funny money (one Robux = $0.01). With the stock offering, parents and kids overlap between two kinds of assets equally based on a sort of arbitrary value: in-game currency and memestocks. One redditor, who sounds suspiciously like he’s trying to sell us on Roblox stock, even has a pitch for kids on r/investing:

Kids love Roblox. On the school run I mentioned that we’ll soon be able to buy some shares in Roblox and that means we’d own a little piece and as Roblox grows and more kids buy Robux we’d make money and if we left it there for years and years in ten years you might be able to buy a car or something. They were super enthusiastic. I’m looking forward to having this experience with them win or lose.

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Aside from multi-level marketing overtones, it saves the old childhood lectures about mowing lawns and savings accounts. This is 2021. Go shopping, tell your friends to buy digital golden scythes and rainbow tiaras, the act of which, in time, magically yields grown-up money, and then you get a car. Sweet! This leaves out the possibility of mutual disappointment in the event that kids stop buying Robux, leading to Robux inflation, maybe—a perfectly viable possibility that has happened in World of Warcraft. (Though that was due less to a lack of interest and more an unchecked gold supply.)

Wait, what’s Roblox, and what does it want with the children?

Roblox is an online platform that supports a vast inventory of user-generated games and custom avatar items, created with Roblox’s proprietary tools. The Roblox worlds, which look populated by LEGO-like characters, can be set anywhere from a jail to the suburbs to hell and, notoriously, sometimes orgy rooms with functional but clunky genitalia. Play is free, but Roblox pushes users to pull out a credit card to buy the in-game currency, Robux, for status symbols like banana suits, spa masks, and sling pouches; Roblox further incentivizes users to pay monthly subscriptions to get more Robux than they would by paying the same price for one-off purchases.

Roblox launched in 2006 but has reined in a captive pandemic base, as of December, reaching 37.1 million developers up from 19.1 million in 2019. (Roblox wants to be very clear that stockholders shouldn’t expect continued explosive growth, writing in its S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, “we do not expect these activity levels to be sustained.”)

Like Second Life, Roblox partially entices its users to generate reams of content with the promise of in-game currency, which can be exchanged for dollars. Developers who create Roblox games can sell access to their games or keep them free. They can make some Robux when users buy stuff within the games, like special powers and jetpacks and pool tables, and then exchange Robux for dollars, and Roblox pays a stipend if enough people play your game.

If Roblox weren’t providing the service of fun, developer income inequality would look dismal. From September 2019 to September 2020, 99.22% of Roblox’s nearly 970,000 money-making developers got less than $1,000, while three people made over $10 million. Presumably, most make nothing at all; Roblox says in its SEC filings that it currently has almost 7 million developers building for it. Roblox’s latest S-1 revealed that trends were more or less the same from December 2019 to December 2020, with 99.5% out of an overall 1.27 million developers in the bottom income bracket.

This is possibly because it’s very hard to get your game noticed out of tens of millions, but it’s probably not helped by the fact that Roblox leaves literal fractions of pennies on the table for its creators. Its developer exchange rate sucks, for one; while a Robux costs $0.01 for the consumer to buy, Roblox only gives developers back $.0035 per Robux when they cash out. Roblox also takes 30% of Robux spent within developers’ games and 70% of Robux from gear on the Avatar marketplace, as of the company’s S-1 filing in November. (Last year, Roblox introduced “Premium payouts,” additional earnings developers get for effectively nudging players to subscribe by, for example, paywalling areas of the game. Roblox doesn’t specify a pay rate, which is calculated based on complex averages of user activity. But it says the payments are rising.) Plus game developers should anticipate setting aside time for moderation, updates, and DMCA takedown compliance, as well as pay taxes because these are “payments for the services you have provided.”

Roblox itself is a Robux dealer, working on a freemium model. Roblox says it makes “substantially all” of its revenue through the sale of Robux, through subscriptions and one-time Robux purchases, which “only a small portion” of users actually pay for.

Robux is pegged to the U.S. dollar, but because Robux isn’t regularly adjusted for foreign customers to account for exchange rates, a “rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar against these foreign currencies can harm our reported results and cause the revenue derived from our foreign users to decrease,” the company wrote in SEC documents.

The rise of the ‘Earth economies’

Roblox is a virtual economy just like World of Warcraft, Second Life, EVE Online, Minecraft, and other online games. Virtual economies are mainstream at this point, but they make varying degrees of contact with what has been referred to as “Earth economies.”

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In a phone call, Jon Callas, a computer security specialist and director of technology projects at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, used three categories to understand game economies. He compares a “closed economy” to a casino night amongst friends who might donate the pot to charity at the end of the night. The next tier is closer to a real casino, which allows you to buy tokens and cash out at any time. A third would be nearly paral

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